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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."